Anyone reading these posts will have seen this chart before – The Apollo Margin of Safety chart that gives users a continuous, objective assessment of the risk and reward of holding a position, long or short. The indicator applies a real options pricing model – more information, willingly made available on request.
Even without the tutorial, the beauty of data visualisation makes the point perfectly. The chart goes back 10 years and it’s evident that against the stock’s own history, June 3 2026 was as good as it gets. That was the Need to Know moment. As of today and following results, IBM will open -20%. Future value is $261, while the opening price today is $224, which given the stock volatility is no surprise.
There will be another signal along at some point, perhaps as we witnessed in February but it’s cold comfort to those holding the stock to know that someone, somewhere should have known and told them.
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